Over the past several weeks, we have shared our views on the current wave of high-profile IPOs, including SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI.
We outlined our caution, our framework, and the historical context that informs our thinking. Now, with SpaceX (SPCX) having traded publicly since its IPO on June 12, 2026, we have a real-time case study in front of us that reinforces points we have been making.
Where investors stand today: the price reality
Before turning to the broader context, it is worth anchoring the conversation in actual dollar figures. Depending on how and when an investor gained exposure to SpaceX, their starting point differs, but the outcome in every case is a significant loss relative to Monday’s closing price of $113.50.
Table 1: SpaceX performance
| Entry Point | Price Paid | Current Price | Dollar Loss / Share | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IPO Allocation Price | $135.00 | $113.50 | -$21.50 | -15.9% |
| Opening Market Price | $160.00 | $113.50 | -$46.50 | -29.1% |
| All-Time High (Jun 16) | $225.64 | $113.50 | -$112.12 | -49.7% |
Source: Bloomberg, Mercer Advisors Investment Team
As of Monday, July 27, 2026, investors who received IPO allocations at $135 per share were sitting on a loss of 15.9%. Those who entered at the opening market price of $160 are down 29.1%. And any investor who purchased near the all-time high of $225.64 reached on June 16 faces a loss of more than 49.7%. Regardless of the entry point, patience and systematic exposure would have proven superior.
Performance since IPO
The table below captures cumulative total return performance from June 12 through July 27, using SpaceX’s IPO price of $160. The contrast between SPCX and the broad market benchmarks is striking.
Table 2: SpaceX performance relative to broader market as of July 27
| Cumulative Return Since IPO | |
|---|---|
| SPCX (SpaceX) | -29.1% |
| MSCI ACWI IMI (Global Equities) | -0.5% |
| S&P 500 | -0.1% |
Source: Bloomberg, Mercer Advisors Investment Team
Putting the decline in context
It is tempting to look at a 29% drawdown and view it in isolation. The more instructive frame is to ask what this episode tells us about the broader dynamics of large IPOs, and whether the pattern is surprising given what we already knew. (It’s not surprising.)
As we noted in our May 26 commentary, the history of large IPOs reveals a consistent pattern: early enthusiasm, often a brief price surge driven by sentiment and momentum, followed by a normalization period, as the market more carefully evaluates the underlying business and its valuation. The opening period of SPCX trading followed this script closely.
Table 3: Historical Post-IPO Returns
| Company | Year | Valuation | 3-Month Return | 6-Month Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alibaba | 2014 | $169B | +18% | (30%) |
| Facebook (Meta) | 2012 | $81B | (50%) | (31%) |
| Uber | 2019 | $75B | (4%) | (21%) |
| Rivian | 2021 | $67B | (36%) | (67%) |
| DiDi Global | 2021 | $61B | (45%) | (79%) |
| UPS | 1999 | $60B | (16%) | (15%) |
| Coupang | 2021 | $60B | (22%) | (65%) |
| Arm Holdings | 2023 | $52B | +29% | +189% |
| General Motors | 2010 | $50B | +7% | (37%) |
| Airbnb | 2020 | $41B | +186% | +167% |
This data shows that only two of the ten largest IPOs of recent years were in positive territory six months after their debut. These well-known businesses experienced drawdowns of up to 79% in their first two quarters of trading. SpaceX’s current trajectory fits within that historical range.
Reinforcing caution, even for exceptional businesses
Nothing about the SpaceX experience changes our fundamental investment philosophy. If anything, it underscores the convictions we have held and communicated throughout this IPO cycle.
To be clear: this is not a criticism of SpaceX as a business. It may prove to be an exceptional company over the long term. The point is that even exceptional businesses often make poor investments at the wrong entry point. Patience in investing helps protect us from exactly this kind of early-stage volatility.
Never rush into a new investment
The first days of SPCX trading illustrated something we have discussed extensively: IPO pricing is designed to serve the seller, not the buyer. The companies coming to market, their investment bankers, and early institutional participants all benefit from an environment of peak optimism at launch.
Many of the strongest long-term investments were made well after the early volatility, when expectations had reset and the business trajectory was better understood. Lockup expirations, typically several months after listing, can create additional selling pressure and more attractive entry points. Investors who remain patient can preserve their options. Those who rushed in at the IPO have surrendered it.
Default to systematic, diversified exposure
Due to our systematic, rules-based approach to public equities, our investment strategies can take on exposure to SpaceX and other Mega-IPOs organically as they become meaningful components of the indices we track. This means participating in the company’s long-term potential, but without taking outsized positions at what has often historically proven to be a very unfavorable entry point.
The current IPO environment is filled with excitement, social validation, and the fear of missing out. These forces are real and powerful, but they are also reliably at odds with disciplined, evidence-based investing.
Key takeaways
- On the drop in SPCX: This is exactly the kind of price behavior the historical record led us to anticipate. This is a well-documented pattern, not an anomaly. Large IPOs frequently experience significant drawdowns in their early trading period (even for companies that ultimately prove to be excellent long-term businesses). What we are seeing is the market moving through a process of price discovery, not a verdict on SpaceX’s ultimate value.
- On where investors stand today: Investors who got in at the IPO allocation price ($135), at the opening price ($160), or the all-time high ($225.64), are now sitting on a loss of between 16% and 49%. This reinforces why our approach is not to stand aside from SpaceX entirely, but to gain exposure systematically through diversified index ownership rather than chasing specific entry points. This path is designed to manage the risk associated with early trading periods while aiming to participate in long-term upside On the fear of missing out: The key question is not whether SpaceX is a great company. It may be. This same consideration can be relevant for other mega-IPOs, such as Anthropic or OpenAI. The key question is whether the companies are great investments at the price and through the structure available at the moment of the IPO. Those are very different questions, and conflating them is one of the most prevalent behavioral traps in investing.
- On those who did invest: If an investor holds SPCX today, the appropriate response is not panic but perspective. The same evidence-based framework that told us to be patient about entry points also tells us that selling in response to short-term drawdowns is rarely a winning strategy. A conversation about position sizing, overall diversification, and long-term goals is more productive than one focused on recent price movement alone.
- On what comes next: We will continue to monitor SpaceX’s post-IPO trajectory. Over time, our investment strategies may gain systematic exposure to SpaceX as lockup periods expire and float increases, causing the stock to become a more meaningful index constituent. We remain comfortable with that path.
If you’re not a client and you are ready to put evidence-based investing to work for your goals, let’s start a conversation.
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SpaceX (SPCX) began public trading on June 12, 2026, at an IPO price of $135 per share, with a market open price of $160. Since then, the stock has declined significantly. As of late July, it was trading around $113.50, meaning investors who bought at the IPO price are down roughly 16%, those who bought at the open are down about 29%, and anyone who purchased near the all-time high of $225.64 (reached on June 16) faces a loss of nearly 50%. This trajectory is consistent with historical patterns seen in other large IPOs.
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No — it fits a well-documented pattern. Historical data on the ten largest IPOs of recent years shows that only two were in positive territory six months after their debut, and many experienced drawdowns of up to 79% in their first two quarters of trading. The SpaceX experience is not an anomaly; it represents the market working through a normal process of price discovery after the initial excitement at launch.
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IPO pricing is structured primarily to benefit the seller — the company, its early investors, and investment bankers — not the buyer. Shares are brought to market during a period of peak optimism and media attention, which tends to drive valuations above what long-term fundamentals might justify. Once that initial enthusiasm fades, the market recalibrates, and prices often fall substantially before stabilizing. Lockup expiration periods, typically occurring several months after the IPO, can add further selling pressure as early insiders and employees become free to sell their shares.
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The right answer depends on your overall financial plan, risk tolerance, and investment time horizon — not on the stock’s recent price movement alone. A large price decline does not automatically make an investment attractive. The more important questions are whether the current valuation reflects the company’s long-term business prospects, and whether adding a concentrated position in a single company aligns with your broader goals. Mercer Advisors’ approach favors gaining exposure to companies like SpaceX systematically through diversified index ownership rather than through direct, concentrated positions. We encourage you to contact your wealth advisor before making any changes to your portfolio.
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The appropriate response is perspective, not panic. The same evidence-based framework that suggests caution about IPO entry points also tells us that selling in response to short-term drawdowns is rarely a winning strategy. Rather than focusing solely on recent price movement, a more productive conversation covers your position sizing relative to your overall portfolio, your level of diversification, and whether your long-term goals have changed. We encourage you to reach out to your Mercer Advisors wealth advisor to review your situation in full context. If you aren’t a client, contact us – we’d love to walk through this with you.
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Not entirely — but we do urge patience and a systematic approach. Mercer Advisors does not recommend rushing in at the IPO price, which is typically set at a moment of peak excitement. Instead, our investment strategies are designed to gain exposure to high-profile companies like SpaceX organically, as they become meaningful constituents of the market indices we track. This path allows clients to participate in long-term upside without taking on the concentrated risk and volatility that characterize the early trading period.
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Those are two very different questions — and conflating them is one of the most prevalent behavioral traps in investing. SpaceX may well prove to be an exceptional business over the long term. But even exceptional companies can be poor investments if purchased at the wrong price or through the wrong structure. The key question is not the quality of the business in isolation, but whether it represents a sound investment at the valuation available at the time of the IPO. The early performance of SPCX illustrates exactly this distinction.
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Rather than chasing specific entry points driven by media attention and excitement, Mercer Advisors follows a systematic, rules-based approach to public equity exposure. Our investment strategies take on positions in new public companies as those companies grow into meaningful components of the market indices we track. This means we avoid the concentrated risk inherent in IPO-day purchases while still ensuring our clients participate meaningfully in the long-term performance of the most successful companies. Our role as fiduciaries is to ground every portfolio decision in a careful assessment of valuation and long-term outcomes — not short-term narrative or the fear of missing out.
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A lockup period is a contractual restriction that prevents company insiders, early investors, and employees from selling their shares for a set period after an IPO, typically 90 to 180 days. When the lockup expires, a large volume of shares can enter the market all at once, creating downward pressure on the stock price. For patient investors, lockup expirations can create more attractive entry points than the IPO itself, since the initial enthusiasm has faded and the selling pressure from insiders has had a chance to work through the market.
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Yes — over time and through a systematic process. As SpaceX’s float increases (for example, as lockup periods expire and more shares become freely tradable), the stock can become a more meaningful constituent of the market indices Mercer Advisors’ strategies track. At that point, our clients can gain proportionate exposure automatically as part of a diversified portfolio — without the need to make a concentrated, timing-dependent bet at the moment of the IPO.
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