Science of Fear and Staying Calm in Volatile Times
- Instinct and past experiences influence how we make decisions with money. So how can you make good decisions? Behavioral finance explains our instinctive motivations and how our brains are functionally wired to influence our money behaviors.
- While we like to believe that markets and investors behave rationally, we often see that this is not the case. We have innate mental biases that cause us to act predictably irrational, often contrary to our own best interests.
- It takes time and effort to recognize when we are about to act from emotion or a learned script, but it can be done. We encourage you to stay the course and take comfort in the proven science of asset allocation and diversification.
Walking through a grocery store during the COVID-19 crisis provides some startling observations about behavior. The financial markets haven’t been very helpful either, with daily fluctuations or volatility. While it’s tempting to want to give in to the panic and anxiety, we encourage you take some deep breaths and take a step back.
How Can You Avoid Making Irrational Decisions During This Crisis?
Behavioral finance studies the psychology of financial decision-making. It explains our instinctive motivations and how our brains are functionally wired to influence our money behaviors. Researchers in the fields of psychology, medicine, and economics have identified two complementary sources of motivations that influence how we make decisions with money, one involving instinct and the other past experiences.
Leaning on Our Instincts
While we like to believe that markets and investors are rational and therefore behave rationally, we often see that this is not the case. Innate motivations manifest in mental biases and cause us to act predictably irrational,1 often contrary to our own best interests. The stronger the emotion, the more confident we feel and the harder we react.
We have seen this play out in recent weeks with the stock market correction and the significantly increased trading volume. As financial advisors, we tell our clients to stay the course and take comfort in the proven science of asset allocation and diversification. Unfortunately, most investors do the exact opposite. For example, during the first 12 trading days in February, S&P 500 trading volume averaged 3,737,530,000 shares. Over the next 12 days, trading increased to average 5,778,110,000 (a 53% increase) as market value fell 15.6%. This is a common error that many investors make—of selling low and buying high. This happened during the 2008 downturn when many investors sold their investments at market lows, and it will happen with this crisis.
Herd behavior, where individuals imitate the behavior of a majority, is another key component of behavioral finance. We see herd behavior play out through an illusion of control bias, or the tendency to overestimate your ability to control events or the outcome. For example, we know that humans feel a loss about 2.5x stronger than an equivalent gain, meaning we’re instinctively “risk averse.” When offered a guaranteed gain or an option to take a risk to get more, we usually take the guarantee. However, when we feel we’re about to experience a sure loss, we’ll take risks to avoid that loss.
In a stock market correction, selling our investments feels like a guarantee to avoid loss. We can always buy back later at lower prices, right? Wrong, though that’s a natural instinct. The reason for our faulty logic is that the human brain doesn’t naturally process statistical probability efficiently. According to DALBAR, Inc., between 1998 and 2017, the average mutual fund investor underperformed the S&P 500, seeing a 2.3% annualized return compared to the S&P 500’s 7.7%. annualized return.2 This is a good example of how leaning into our emotions and fear causes us to miss out.
How Learned Financial Behaviors Shape Our Decisions
Each of us has a unique relationship with money. Research by Drs. Brad and Ted Klontz suggests that personal experiences called financial “flashpoints” help formulate our “money scripts,” or our attitudes toward money. In turn, money scripts influence our financial behavior.3
Are you a spender or a saver? Do you consider your personal wealth a private matter or do you want people to know how wealthy you are? Do you believe that having more money will make you happier? Regardless of your answers, it’s likely that you are influenced by your parents, friends, and early experiences.
Money beliefs may also become a source of spousal conflict. For example, one spouse believes saving cash during a crisis is essential while the other spouse believes spending money on a year’s worth of provisions is best to protect the family. Without understanding our own personal money beliefs, it’s unlikely we’ll be empathetic to those of our partner. Take time to reflect on your financial flash points; you might be surprised by what you discover!
When reflecting on our worst money decisions, it’s not uncommon to find some of them rooted in emotion. It takes time and effort to recognize when we are about to act from emotion or a learned script, but it can be done. Having an objective set of eyes to help explore financial options before making important decisions can help maximize your wealth and make it less likely that you’ll make a quick decision that may not be in your best long-term interest. We encourage you to use your financial advisor as a sounding board when you feel these biases creep up, and we’ll help you steer clear of making emotional investing decisions.
Sign up for our newsletter
Watch our webinar:
Tax Strategies in Today’s Environment: Roth IRA Conversions
Listen to our Podcast:
The Dos and Dont’s of Approaching the Market During Volatile Times
Watch our webinar:
Why Now is the Best Time to Gift to Your Loved Ones
Listen to our Podcast:
Financially Prepare for Retirement
Listen to our Podcast:
The Power of a Financial Plan
Watch our webinar:
3 Ways to Manage Your Wealth-Life Balance
Talk with a Local Advisor
GameStop: Making Sense of it All
Feb 1, 2021
Mercer Advisors Capital Markets Update and Outlook: January 2021
Jan 27, 2021
5 Ways to Align Your Insurance and Wealth Planning
Jan 21, 2021
Planning for a Non-Traditional Family (Which Is Probably Yours)
Jan 19, 2021
A Year to Remember: Resilient Markets Overcome Pandemic Panic
Jan 13, 2021
1Ariely, Dan (2008). Predictably Irrational. New York: HarperCollins Publishers.
2DALBAR, Inc. (2018). Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior(QAIB)
3Klontz, B., & Klontz, T. (2010). Mind over money: overcoming the money disorders that threaten our financial health. New York: Broadway Books.
Mercer Advisors Inc. is the parent company of Mercer Global Advisors Inc. and is not involved with investment services. Mercer Global Advisors Inc. (“Mercer Advisors”) is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC. The firm only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements.All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change. Some of the research and ratings shown in this presentation come from third parties that are not affiliated with Mercer Advisors. The information is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed or warranted by Mercer Advisors. Content, research, tools, and stock or option symbols are for educational and illustrative purposes only and do not imply a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell a particular security or to engage in any particular investment strategy. For financial planning advice specific to your circumstances, talk to a qualified professional at Mercer Advisors. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy or product made reference to directly or indirectly, will be profitable or equal to past performance levels. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. Changes in investment strategies, contributions or withdrawals may materially alter the performance and results of your portfolio. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will either be suitable or profitable for a client’s investment portfolio. Historical performance results for investment indexes and/or categories, generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and/or custodial charges or the deduction of an investment-management fee, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing historical performance results. Economic factors, market conditions, and investment strategies will affect the performance of any portfolio and there are no assurances that it will match or outperform any particular benchmark. This document may contain forward-looking statements including statements regarding our intent, belief or current expectations with respect to market conditions. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. While due care has been used in the preparation of forecast information, actual results may vary in a materially positive or negative manner. Forecasts and hypothetical examples are subject to uncertainty and contingencies outside Mercer Advisors’ control. Mercer Advisors is not a law firm and does not provide legal advice to clients. All estate planning documentation preparation and other legal advice is provided through its affiliation with Advanced Services Law Group, Inc.