Question 1

What happened to SpaceX’s stock price after its IPO?

Accepted Answer

SpaceX (SPCX) began public trading on June 12, 2026, at an IPO price of $135 per share, with a market open price of $160. Since then, the stock has declined significantly. As of late July, it was trading around $113.50, meaning investors who bought at the IPO price are down roughly 16%, those who bought at the open are down about 29%, and anyone who purchased near the all-time high of $225.64 (reached on June 16) faces a loss of nearly 50%. This trajectory is consistent with historical patterns seen in other large IPOs.

Question 2

Is the decline in SpaceX’s stock unusual compared to other large IPOs?

Accepted Answer

No — it fits a well-documented pattern. Historical data on the ten largest IPOs of recent years shows that only two were in positive territory six months after their debut, and many experienced drawdowns of up to 79% in their first two quarters of trading. The SpaceX experience is not an anomaly; it represents the market working through a normal process of price discovery after the initial excitement at launch.

Question 3

Why do large IPOs so often see sharp price declines after launch?

Accepted Answer

IPO pricing is structured primarily to benefit the seller — the company, its early investors, and investment bankers — not the buyer. Shares are brought to market during a period of peak optimism and media attention, which tends to drive valuations above what long-term fundamentals might justify. Once that initial enthusiasm fades, the market recalibrates, and prices often fall substantially before stabilizing. Lockup expiration periods, typically occurring several months after the IPO, can add further selling pressure as early insiders and employees become free to sell their shares.

Question 4

Should I buy SpaceX stock now that it has fallen sharply from its highs?

Accepted Answer

The right answer depends on your overall financial plan, risk tolerance, and investment time horizon — not on the stock’s recent price movement alone. A large price decline does not automatically make an investment attractive. The more important questions are whether the current valuation reflects the company’s long-term business prospects, and whether adding a concentrated position in a single company aligns with your broader goals. Mercer Advisors’ approach favors gaining exposure to companies like SpaceX systematically through diversified index ownership rather than through direct, concentrated positions. We encourage you to contact your wealth advisor before making any changes to your portfolio.

Question 5

I bought SpaceX at the IPO and I’m now sitting on a significant loss. What should I do?

Accepted Answer

The appropriate response is perspective, not panic. The same evidence-based framework that suggests caution about IPO entry points also tells us that selling in response to short-term drawdowns is rarely a winning strategy. Rather than focusing solely on recent price movement, a more productive conversation covers your position sizing relative to your overall portfolio, your level of diversification, and whether your long-term goals have changed. We encourage you to reach out to your Mercer Advisors wealth advisor to review your situation in full context. If you aren’t a client, contact us – we’d love to walk through this with you.

Question 6

Does Mercer Advisors recommend avoiding IPOs entirely?

Accepted Answer

Not entirely — but we do urge patience and a systematic approach. Mercer Advisors does not recommend rushing in at the IPO price, which is typically set at a moment of peak excitement. Instead, our investment strategies are designed to gain exposure to high-profile companies like SpaceX organically, as they become meaningful constituents of the market indices we track. This path allows clients to participate in long-term upside without taking on the concentrated risk and volatility that characterize the early trading period.

Question 7

Is SpaceX a good company? Does that mean it’s a good investment?

Accepted Answer

Those are two very different questions — and conflating them is one of the most prevalent behavioral traps in investing. SpaceX may well prove to be an exceptional business over the long term. But even exceptional companies can be poor investments if purchased at the wrong price or through the wrong structure. The key question is not the quality of the business in isolation, but whether it represents a sound investment at the valuation available at the time of the IPO. The early performance of SPCX illustrates exactly this distinction.

Question 8

How does Mercer Advisors approach to IPOs differ from simply buying at launch?

Accepted Answer

Rather than chasing specific entry points driven by media attention and excitement, Mercer Advisors follows a systematic, rules-based approach to public equity exposure. Our investment strategies take on positions in new public companies as those companies grow into meaningful components of the market indices we track. This means we avoid the concentrated risk inherent in IPO-day purchases while still ensuring our clients participate meaningfully in the long-term performance of the most successful companies. Our role as fiduciaries is to ground every portfolio decision in a careful assessment of valuation and long-term outcomes — not short-term narrative or the fear of missing out.

Question 9

What are lockup periods, and why do they matter for IPO investors?

Accepted Answer

A lockup period is a contractual restriction that prevents company insiders, early investors, and employees from selling their shares for a set period after an IPO, typically 90 to 180 days. When the lockup expires, a large volume of shares can enter the market all at once, creating downward pressure on the stock price. For patient investors, lockup expirations can create more attractive entry points than the IPO itself, since the initial enthusiasm has faded and the selling pressure from insiders has had a chance to work through the market.

Question 10

Will Mercer Advisors’ investment strategies ever include SpaceX?

Accepted Answer

Yes — over time and through a systematic process. As SpaceX’s float increases (for example, as lockup periods expire and more shares become freely tradable), the stock can become a more meaningful constituent of the market indices Mercer Advisors’ strategies track. At that point, our clients can gain proportionate exposure automatically as part of a diversified portfolio — without the need to make a concentrated, timing-dependent bet at the moment of the IPO.

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Market Commentary

Episode 38 – The Science of Investing

Episode 37 – Navigating the Mega-IPOs

How SpaceX’s Performance Underscores Our Caution on IPO Investing

Q3 Market Outlook: Markets, Interest Rates, Inflation, and More

The Fall of Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin in 2026: Insights from our CIO

Will Mercer Advisors’ investment strategies ever include SpaceX?

What are lockup periods, and why do they matter for IPO investors?

How does Mercer Advisors approach to IPOs differ from simply buying at launch?

Is SpaceX a good company? Does that mean it’s a good investment?

Does Mercer Advisors recommend avoiding IPOs entirely?

I bought SpaceX at the IPO and I’m now sitting on a significant loss. What should I do?

Should I buy SpaceX stock now that it has fallen sharply from its highs?

Why do large IPOs so often see sharp price declines after launch?

About Mercer Advisors

Explore Our Solutions

Want to learn more about Mercer Advisors?

Market Commentary

Episode 38 – The Science of Investing

Episode 37 – Navigating the Mega-IPOs

How SpaceX’s Performance Underscores Our Caution on IPO Investing

Q3 Market Outlook: Markets, Interest Rates, Inflation, and More

The Fall of Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin in 2026: Insights from our CIO

Will Mercer Advisors’ investment strategies ever include SpaceX?

What are lockup periods, and why do they matter for IPO investors?

How does Mercer Advisors approach to IPOs differ from simply buying at launch?

Is SpaceX a good company? Does that mean it’s a good investment?

Does Mercer Advisors recommend avoiding IPOs entirely?

I bought SpaceX at the IPO and I’m now sitting on a significant loss. What should I do?

Should I buy SpaceX stock now that it has fallen sharply from its highs?

Why do large IPOs so often see sharp price declines after launch?

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About Mercer Advisors

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Want to learn more about Mercer Advisors?